Winter is getting closer and predicts being a fairly cold winter because of a triple jam. Until now the global economy could have three motorcycles, China, the countries of the Eurozone and the United States. But due to the current situation with the energy crisis, the rebound of inflation, the upward change and the still persistent War of Ukraine, has made these 3 powers stop at full speed something that will persist during the next months.
According to the analyst Juan Ignacio Crespo. “Although it does not happen synchronized, yes the eventual contraction could overlap between the different areas during this period. It is something that did not happen since the great recession of 2008. The recession risks accumulate around the world.” Only a few days ago the Bank Nomura launched a warning where it says that the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, Japan. South Korea, Canada and Australia will live a strong recession in the next 12 months. Adding to this the analysts if Ying to and Rob Subbaraman add the following “there are signs that the world economy is entering a slowdown in synchronized growth. Which means that the different areas will not be able to count on exports to rebound.”
Since October the IMF has not stopped reviewing its forecasts, ensuring that we are approaching one of the worst scenarios seen in the last 50 years “it is possible that in a short time the world is located at the edge of a recession, just two years after the last 2% next year, a rhythm below which growth has dropped only five times since 1970. In this case, both the United States and the euro area experienced a growth of almost zero next year.
Currently, the United States is technically in recession, this waiting for an official confirmation. But it has been seen as its unemployment rate is still very low with up to 3.7%, despite that it has begun to rise. According to a statistical note, since 1955, every time inflation in the United States has been in more than 4% and unemployment in less than 5%, the economy has entered into a negative field. It is observed by an inverted profitability of the bonds where the 2 -year bonds yield more than those of 10. taking this over time to a contraction.